EFTA01449327.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax frigure 3I: Portfolio outflows reach record highs !Figure 32: Net equity and net debt positions 400 Not Portlo 400 200 2.1 Pomo° Outtiow 300 Portfolio inflow L 300 2.0 100 200 200 11 0 100 1.8 100 -100 1.7 0 0 1.6 -100 .100 -HO 1.5 -200 -200 -100 E oultY 1 •••••• 1101 Debt IIP 1.4 -300 -300 0 - 00 GBP/USD fts) 1.3 Ms -91Nter-94 Mar-97Mar-00 Mar-03 Mar-06Mar-09 Mar-12 rvbr-S0 Mar-93 Mar-96 Merag Ms r.02 n br.05 Mar-0314mM Saint 08 FX RONVCA ars3 now Sacco 08 PXReSdlit, em 8of 'Figure 33: Net holdings of equities Figure 34: Net debt holdings — Not UK Equity Holdings by Fonbigners 2000 ---Not UK Debt Holing, by Famines 2000 1000 1200 1700 . Not Met HP 1700 — Not E4ury 1IP 700 900 1400 . 141Roan Mt robins by the Lit Not Romigit Hold niarb /yr :4 ,, 1400 1100 1100 400 600 800 800 SOD 500 100 1onsow.;‘.9.."---...— 300 200 200 ,•.. -100 -100 -200 -400 400 Met-90 Mar-93 Mar.96 Mir-99 Ptter-02 Mar-05 Mor-0/3 Mot-11 400 -30D Me -90Mar-93Mar-96Mar-99Mar-02Mar-05Mar-08Mar-11 Saver: DB FX Antard end Der Sane 08 FX Annoy. end ENE Euro area (EUR bn) 'Figure 35: The basic balance remains in an uptrend... Figure 36: ...as current account surplus outweighs the IFDI outflows 100 1.7 HO - I DC -1.6 160 - 50 100 1.5 100 - k L 0 0 14 60 0 1 —I1 •SC 7 r "P\‘,./1 1- .100 13 12 -50 Ace -200 1.1 -100 - .150 -160 - 1 .... -300 1.0 400 .200 - ' , —3 rw t na t 11 nth 0.9 -250 400 -250 - ' Bask e alan vs 12-month 0.8 Not ECM 12month -300 -300 500 uSQ4lln lts1 0.7 Jan03 Jan.CC Jan07 J.009 Jan.11 Jan-13 Jan-01 Feb-01 Fermi Feb05 Feb07 Feb.09 Feb11 Feb13 Saint D9 $X ASSY(/' W Einar .Sat 08 PXRearvell and Snot Page 30 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104686 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250870 EFTA01449327