EFTA01367344.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Methodology: Our implied call on US onshore crude growth (in the base case) builds on two critical macro assumptions: * Global product demand is assumed to wow -1.15 MMb/d in 2015 and 1.2 MMb/d in 2016 with average annual growth of -1.15 MMb/d from 2017-2020. Our demand growth assumptions are based on lEA estimates and compare to -650 Mb/d of demand growth in 2014. OPEC production (ex Angola) is assumed flat to 2014 levels in our forecast. This assumption is admittedly 'rosier' than would otherwise be implied from recent production levels (-31.6 MMb/d or +1100 Mb/d higher than our assumed base case vs. May 2015 levels) or from a qualitative weighting of both upside and downside risks (with Iran the most visible/pronounced risk). Please see section on OPEC risks on page 33 of the note for brief commentary around OPEC. Guided by the highlighted assumptions above, our call on US onshore crude growth starts by removing non-crude growth contributions (NGLs. Biofuels, etc.) from assumed global demand growth to obtain a proxy for global crude demand that is then analyzed against our global crude supply build up. In our base case, we assume no pick-up in rig activity in the US L48 in 2016. {Figure 44: Deconstructing the 500 Mb/cl Call on US onshore growth in 2017 Product Demand NOL Demand Crude Demand DMUP* Growth. net of Growth On excess Boofuel. Processing Global NGL Prod OPEC Crude Prod Non•OPEC Crude Growth (In excess Overhang overhang of Prod) Gains growth Growth Prod Growth of Prod) 967 imam. 119 24 11% S3I Sctive Detente an. VitortMeSanzle, lEA. OPProwlegrommon mono dawnMace Math **mate ov sacoomy toterot rig OFEC Page 26 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058877 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205061 EFTA01367344