EFTA01367343.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils IFigure 41: Incremental Demand for US Onshore Crude Expected To Emerge Late 2016 (vs. 2015 Production)... Figure 42:..Forward rolling 12 trio call on US onshore production growth his 1016 production) positive in 21116 6 2 o• 1 2O+1 3O11 401E WI? Source Dann Bint, WeectIkeareit 1 San Deaths Bank KOS IMICASIS 1FA The call on US crude production growth (-500 Mb/d) is decomposed as follows: • We estimate that -260 Mb/d of incremental demand is needed beyond peak (2Q15) L48 production that is not otherwise being supplied from non-OPEC producers (assuming non growing OPEC). • We anticipate a trough in US production in 1Q16 and estimate a gap of -270 Mb/d vs 2Q15 production that will need to narrowed toward an estimated call on US onshore production of -7.65 MMb/d in 1 7. I Figure 43: We estimate the call on annual US onshore crude growth at -600 Mb/d in 2017 and increasing to -1tv1Mbid by 2019/2020 1200 1045 1031 1000 Annual Chango'GranAh (MUM) 800 723 800 531 400 200 0 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Sant Deunche ant Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 25 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058876 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205060 EFTA01367343