EFTA01452581.pdf

28 January 2014 Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges Alternative Asset Manager Initiation For BX (Figure 11) we expect stronger intermediate-term growth as BX' realization cycle matures over the next 1-2 years, we think peaking in 2015 or later. Combined with good organic growth trends, we see El and revenue growing at a double digit pace, largely through a realization cycle (2012-16). In addition, we do not see a dramatic change in the business mix over time, with variances more attributable to market performance and realization timing. This is testament to BX' philosophy in growing the firm in diverse areas and maintaining leadership positions in key areas - private equity, real estate, credit, and alternatives advisory. Figure I 1 BX DE> forecasts for El by segment ret.ien tie by type (Si n) Pretax Economic Income (B) CAGR Segments 2012 2013E 2014E 2016E 2016E 2012-16E Reale Equky $412 $742 $1,172 $1.312 $879 20.8% Real Estate $999 VAS 51.462 $1A48 $1,142 3.4% Hedge Fund Editions $257 $342 $412 $518 $724 29.6% Oedi $325 $374 $493 $419 $420 6.6% A deism $47 $52 $93 $110 $119 26.1% Total $2,041 $2,908 $3,632 $3908 $3,285 12.6% Average Segments Pretax B Business Mix 2012.16E Reale Equky 20.2% 24.8% 32.3% 34.5% 28.8% 27.7% Real Estate 49.0% 49.6% 40.2% 38.0% 34.8% 42.3% Hedge Fund Sobti:os 12.6% 11.4% 11.4% 13.6% 22.0% 14.2% Oodi 15.9% 12.5% 13.6% 11.0% 12.8% 13.2% Advisory 2.3% 1.7% 2.6% 2.0% 3.6% 2.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Revenues by Type CAGR Segments 2012 2013E 2014E 2016E 2016E 2012.16E Fees $2.135 $2.285 $2.686 $3.024 $3294 11.4% Carried Heckel & noontime $1,594 $2.884 53.676 $3.787 $2,564 12.5% Rncipal & other none $338 $605 $631 $613 $645 17.5% Total $4,067 $5.775 $6.995 $7,424 $6,493 12.4% Average Segments Revenue Mix by Type 2012.16E Fees 52.5% 39.6% 38.4% 40.7% 50.7% 44.4% Carried Wettest & hcenteres 392% 49.9% 52.5% 51.0% 39.3% 46.4% Rincipald other heart 8.3% 10.5% 9.0% 8.3% 9.9% 92% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% San canonmoans *xiDeutodit Sont Page 14 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0109700 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00255884 EFTA01452581