EFTA01452582.pdf

28 January 2014 Brokers. Asset Managers & Exchanges Alternative Asset Manager Initiation For CG (Figure 12), somewhat similar to BX, we also expect relatively good growth, somewhat slower, but also steadier, and with a potential of modest growth after realizations peak around 2015-16. We also expect the business mix to remain relatively stable, with the growth in Solutions aided by the acquisition of the remaining 60% of Alpinvest late this year. With realizations beginning to slow in 2016 and with CG's stronger organic growth, we expect the fee component of the mix to also improve throughout our forecast horizon. 'Figure 12: CG — 013 forecasts for El by segment & revenue by type (Sinn) Pretax Economic Income (B) CAGR Segments 2012 2013E 2014E 2016E 2016E 2012.16E corporate PI iv ale Equdy $479 $788 $511 6514 $449 -16% Global Market Seato% $116 $210 $147 6165 $244 10.3% Real Assets $67 $16 $167 $203 $160 24.4% Sorties $24 $90 $200 $201 $196 683% Total 5736 $1,104 31.025 $1662 $1049 93% Average segments Pretax B Business Mix 2012.16E Corporate Reale Ern* 651% 71.4% 49.8% 47.5% 42.8% 55.3% Global Market Strategies 22.5% 19.0% 14.3% 15.3% 23.3% 18.9% Real Assets 9.1% 1.4% 16.3% 187% 15.3% 12.2% Solutians 3.3% 82% 195% 185% 18.7% 13.6% Tool 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1000% Revenues by Type CAGR Segments 2012 2013E 2014E 2016E 2016E 2012.16E Fees $993 $1,115 $1.321 $1,491 $1.733 14.9% Carried Interest & Inconliies $996 $1,683 61.200 $1,256 $1.033 09% Rrepel & other income $55 $20 $87 $99 6109 18.5% Tool $2.044 $2,818 $2,608 $2,845 62.875 89% Average Segments Revenue Mix by Type 2012.18E Foes 48.6% 39.6% 50.7% 52.4% 60.3% 50.3% Gamed Merest & reentries 48.7% 59.7% 46.0% 44.1% 35.9% 46.0% Rincipal 6 other income 2.7% 0.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.8% 28% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1000% Scutt CO,Aerr reterta rat Pinney 8sM Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 15 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0109701 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00255885 EFTA01452582