EFTA01447565.pdf

Presently Greek banks rank as some of the least profitable in Europe (ROA <0.5%, ROE 2-2.5%). Looking forward to 2018 they should trade at least in line with European banks. Sector consolidation, NC asset disposal, rapidly declining cost of wholesale funds and efficiency savings will all contribute to that. The Sector comprises Alpha Bank, Eurobank, Nat Bk of Greece and Piraeus. The are no longer distressed and trade broadly in-line with European peers in terms of EPS and TBV multiples. Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) Of the three, Alpha Bank looks the most interesting. It trades at a discount to the others and has less complex re-structuring. A recent capital raise increased Cif to 12%. Most analysts prefer Alpha Bank to its peers for these reasons. Alpha Bank Stock Price (Embedded image moved to file: pic26818.gif) very recent analyst target prices for Alpha Bank are largely above the current price (Embedded image moved to file: pic24291.gif) warrants A year ago the bank issued 4.5year call warrants, exercisable every six months into the stock at a price schedule (appendix A) that varies over time the relationship between the warrant (which settles physically) and the stock price is: [Current stock price (0.69) - next exercise price of warrant (0.4686)] x leverage ratio 7.408 = intrinsic warrant px - 1.64. Now, the warrant is offered at 1.83. The value here is that the difference between 1.83 and 1.64, in my view, doesnt compensate for the optionality you get holding the warrant compared to just holding the stock. Warrant price (Embedded image moved to file: pic11474.gif) Were the stock to rise 10% over the next month the warrant would rise in value from 1.83 by approx 22%. conversely if the stock were to fall the warrants would also fall - but its unlikely the warrant price trades at zero anytime soon due to the 3.Syears of remaining tine value. The warrants are quoted several thousand up ltick wide on exchange. Any qns shout. Appendix A WARRANT ENTITLES HOLDER TO ACQUIRE NEW COMMON SHARES HELD BY HFSF AT A RATIO OF 7.408683070. ISSUE AMOUNT: 1,233,503,482. STEP-UP STRIKE:0.4488 12/10/2013, 0.4576 06/10/2014, 0.4686 12/10/2014, 0.4796 06/10/2014, 0.4928 12/10/2015, 0.506 06/10/2016, 0.5214 12/10/2016, 0.5368 06/10/2017, 0.5544 12/10/2017 Nav (Embedded image moved to file: pic01151.gif) Nav Gupta Managing Director Deutsche Bank AG, Filiale London Deutsche Asset & wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N lEN London, united Kingdom Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the peawm Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic00443.gif) CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 102230 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00248414 EFTA01447565