EFTA01387383.pdf

9 January 2016 FX Blueprint [Figure 45: AUD/NZD already low vs history, but the Figure 46: Notwithstanding some recent convergence. relative strength of the labour markets says that's fair households are still more upbeat in NZ than Australia I 17 r Auomzoirdsmcionamtb 1 45 COUSLITISt elinemenr 1.40 3 0 from 13 —AuerNZ omtnirmant-neulano, Tao Ern) sae 1.15 it —AUDINZDOM. 1.35 -Annelle -NZ 2 1 2 1 30 1.13 1 25 1/0 0 0 1.15 1 10 •I 109 1.05 -2 -2 1.00 1.07 095 -3 92 95 Se 01 01 07 10 13 16 04 06 08 10 12 14 IS 18 Sawa Asx tibretbry Mena to 0140w &int Sane tom atoomenra Anna Li! Osumi* ant ".._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._._.._.._.._.... ._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._..._ 1Figure 47: AUD/NZD fair vs rates. but the market looks too hawkish on the RBA and too dovish on the BENZ AUDEN/Dann rate dtkranbals F Figure 48: Australian labour market data has been exceptionally strong - some normalization may corn Performance of Australlri ennseyrrert ava 02 DU qt nifleffnalV1WhOOWEI - Re:RV! f8O33 - 900 OEM al Cr K230 in 12m Ms 120 Savo of foot-Eno vt-we em(lonnat beg (=eclat -ons 120 1 14 0.1 —Al404420 vasi — Shin of mere"; 'oll • ondernom onveboe 0 15% mom 00 112 100 100 -0.1 1 10 CO 80 -0.2 1 OS 60 60 -0 3 -0 4 40 40 108 119a, 20bp -0 5 20 1 04 -0 6 0 !- A. JO -0 7 1 02 03 05 07 CO 11 13 15 17 Fe0-16 A00-16 Fenl Au0-17 Feb -18 Sown tioombergRanaLA! Dana* Sink j sou-max elownonFinny* ll?DtatICIM Figure 49: Relative commodity prices argue for a lower Figure 50: On our preferred 0Beer valuation metric, AUD/NZD AUDINZ0 is quite expensive relative to history AU13/122D and cafmoary antes 20 125 [g oo 20 AUDitaDvaksolionnisekovesnthe Dew 20 115 iiO' at v3 dairy LOCO 111193 15 1 15 • --A110/3.20 3113) ! '5 !OS 10 1 10 4 5 o -5 -5 •io 4 55 •is 1 45 25 1 00 -20 -20 14 15 10 18 96 98 CO 02 04 os ye to 12 12 10 IS Sam. Soren*snail!Pun* Sank Source —, Once Oink Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 21 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089895 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00236079 EFTA01387383