EFTA01387384.pdf

9 January 2018 FX Blueprint Figure 51: EM equity allocations are still near historical Figure 52: EM inflows are pro-cyclical on growth, and lows we expect growth to be robust and synchronized in 2018 Enraging Menton AndPew/4as ~es. 0.• AM/ as USD biniOn taco 22 Total EM Pion-rasidera Capital Inflows [IF j 1600 EM-PM cirac.cl. Dairoit vial. rtes Forecast 21 20 1400 ID 1200 ID 1000 17 10 800 15 604) 404 13 12 200 11 0 2000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4i0Ot 2005 2000 /I :"01-/ Saris EiFft DF eitime44 inetdas /frat/d/lelthaff/E/10 Eason Dimino Bank IF rFigure 53: TRY and ZAR have the highest betas to broader EM FX ono to0603(0. 3 0.20 anancrez) $0 (C kM I-% IFigure 54: Disinflation is expected in O1. particularly for Turkey us %Cm env leciled tire. rut on lon•C•01 926 4S0 1,4, -100 -1501.2) (0110/1 4 newt!?j -200 4 Sant Mond.Bonk 4464,2401 I Sant 04.4101•Billlk H/M/Mithiffif Figure 55; ZAR and particularly TRY score well on ex Figure 56: South Africa's trade balance has moved to a ante real rates (for Mar 18) record-high surplus. compressing the current account deficit 6 Rtial as as of Mar-18 (poll/ rate - headline CPI 103 DB Ionian. %) 4 3 53 2 25 1 0 .3 0 -1 -2 -5 co 2 r.1 z & g 0s -0 o. Lul z -135 L4 -7 1633 2000 2602 2004 2006 2C00 2010 2012 2014 201t 2016 — soonflea Carl AtCOUt4 sauna 4% we). It 9481Arita Tea 134lancit CZAR on, 12rn Rep sera to Sans Oalrehogini I Sane boursdr• Page 24 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089898 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00236082 EFTA01387384