EFTA01367358.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils A Country by Country Outlook on Key Players Angola Recent pre-salt drilling activity withstanding, exploration spend in Angola over the last 15 years has been largely concentrated in the Lower Congo Basin. As a result, production growth in our forecast period is chiefly driven by project start-ups in the Lower Congo. However, longer-term production growth will likely shift towards the pre-salt Kwanza Basin (Cameia. Orca, Bicuar, etc). In our view, the key near-term risk to production is a delay in the start-up of complex projects (Kaombo Block 32) while the key long-term risk is a delay in project FIDs in the Kwanza Basin (-250 mbpd of '17-20 incremental growth is from unsanctioned projects) Figure 67; Angola Production Outlook. 2014-2020e Figure 68; Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. (MbId) shallow vs. deepwater (Mbid) 2000 s 20® 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 • Onshore (Cony) • Shallow vadat (Cony) a Base a Growth Wks ■Deepwater (Caw) ■ Ultra-deepwater (Cory) Sane'Putsch. Sank 'ModMoclainyt lEA Sara &weft ant SOW 4041476,44 154 I Figure 69: Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mbecl) 2500 - Figure 70: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of —235 IMbid dim 1771 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2016 2010 do.44Groaln al Outran Ands emsUnOur 0,407446444 moo Pri:04014 Dirdop/n4r4 40rne temp 400 myosin 704M. •1%4 made* nen ....C. 004 Caw Scam Dawns Bent Moo' Abotgenat lEA Seurat Deumh• 9074 MOWPACIMIS lEA Page 40 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058891 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205075 EFTA01367358