EFTA01367357.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils [Figure 65: Correlation of QoQ Changes in Product Demand and Implied Crude Inventory Builds I \ ,--\, i \ 7\ 1 A 4# 41141° +f"lied' ft' a it as ---,, -\,, 1‘ ! ‘ i' i \ .., Y San', dissent Se* ?EA Non-OPEC Supply Disappointment There are clearly risks to this outlook, as Non-OPEC supply has historically disappointed (see figure below), but there is no avoiding the fact that the outlook for Non-OPEC supply is more robust than usual. The most visible risk surrounds Brazilian production. While the pre-salt basin resource is excellent, the ability to exploit it will be challenged amid the fall-out from the "Lava Jato" scandal and from significant local content requirements for key projects. With 2016 capital spend already reduced by 40% from prior guidance (and estimated delivered FPSOs in 2016 reduced to 3 from7) on the company's latest presentation there is significant risk to the growth story. Please see page 43 for more details on Brazil. 'Figure 66: lEA Non-OPEC supply projections Month lEA Forecast was Made ara 1al Dna. art Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 39 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058890 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205074 EFTA01367357