EFTA01177185.pdf

From: "Sean J Lancaster' To: "'Alan Goldman' "'Alex Hsu' "'Amy L • , ezm art o en Easley"' "'Bill Houston" "'Brad Martini" & J Aviation Partners, LL " M. Zucchero"' "'Eileen M. eimer s "'Jack Gulbin'" "'Jeff Child "'Jeffrey E stein' < eevacation ail.com>, "'Josh Tarnow "Lesley Taylor "McLem re amantha"' "'Pete "Rob Zeitinger" "Robb "'Royce ddittm rowley Subject: FW: UBS Business Jet Survey: Index Declines Along with Weaker Macro Date: Thu, 31 May 2012 17:25:32 +0000 Attachments: Bizjet_Survey_MN053012.pdf; BizjetCycles_052512.pdf; MN050912_Delivs_by_Region.pdf; Inventory_MN051512.pdf; disclaim.txt Inline-Images: image001.png; image002.png; image003.gif *Index at 43, down 13%: Our latest Business Jet Market Index came in at 43, down 13% and reversing most of the improvement seen in our prior survey from March. All three of our market segment indices moved lower with large cabin down the most. Our straight up measure of absolute business conditions came in at 4.2, 6% below recent peak at 4.5 in March. *Customer interest improvement slows: Four out of five component scores moved lower with declines in our customer interest and outlook scores driving the majority of the drop in our index, partially offset by continued inventory improvement. While lower from our prior survey, interest and outlook scores remain above 50, indicating incremental improvement. *North America remains relatively strong: Our overall customer interest score moved 19% lower to 56 with lower scores across all regions. Customer interest continues to improve the most in North America (64) followed by Latin America (60) and Asia (59) while deteriorating in the Middle East (48) and Europe (30). *See positive risk-rewards for stocks: Despite weakness in our survey, we continue to believe North American bizjet market is improving, driven by replacement demand postponed during the downturn. We still see positive risk-rewards as we don't think stocks incorporate much for bizjets at current levels including Buy rated TXT/COL/GD. EFTA01177185 Chart 1: UBS Business Jet Market Index Chart 2: Overall Business Conditions Score 103 250 193 % cc 0 011 103 93 M WW u- 1 Uni .“.c ic UBS Business Jet Make/ Index —* Rd Pet(Riti) O 0 0 g 1g g Y~ 15 O> O• 6 O zmzx Simple average BBOtGarrrr stolt pica performance index relative to SW 500 Source: UBS Business Jet Survey Source: UBS Busiiess Jet Survey Best regards, Sean J. Lancaster Bristol Associates Inc. O+1-540-665-5135 direct 2+1-202-682-4000 ext 1130 Main Office 4. +1-540-533-8183 Mobile 1 +1-202-682-1809 FAX 4, +011-44 7896003013 UK CELL 2) [email protected] P. www.bristolassociates.com BRISTOL ASSOCIATES Tins inessagu may contain confidential and/or legally pnViteged information. If you are not the intended recipient of the message. please destroy it. Any unauthorized dissemination. distribution or copying of the material in this message. and any attachments to the message. is strictly forbidden. (c) 2012 alt rights reserved. EFTA01177186