EFTA01618718.pdf

Platform: iMessage Timezone: UTC+0000 1212 5333739 Larry Summers +1 (212) 533-3739 LS • 2019/06/07 1212 5333739 Larry Summers How you doing? 09:37:17 pm • Good news. Time is passing and I am healing. Bad news. Adding insult to injury a pipe burst in our basement and we had to evacuate initially to Charles hotel now to our Cape House. Not good for prof New equanimity. 10:32:35 pm Various hassles w kids adding to drama. Yellow peril Is kind of status quo. I offered to write an op ed w her on against restricting student visas. She responded enthusiastically. 10:37:00 pm Think nontrivial chance economy turning down less because of trade than people think. LS 10:37:38 pm 1212 5333739 Why ? Oil prices. Low . Brexit ovrerhang. Only place to invest dollars. ? 10:38:18 pm 2019/06/08 • 1212 5333739 If they reduce interest rates. The market will soar. can we speak about income inequality 11:21:06 am • EFTA01618718  2019/06/09 Larry Summers Will call later today or tmrw. Think it's generalized trump uncertainty plus rest of world weak plus business needing less investment LS 04:16:03 pm 2019/06/10 1212 5333739 Call me re davos 01:59:31 pm Larry Summers Ok. At dr. Will do later LS 01:59:56 pm 1212 5333739 ? 04:49:29 pm Larry Summers Can this hold till late afternoon. Drs pt etc. still In car on way back from dr headed to pt LS 04:53:47 pin 1212 5333739 Yes 04:54:02 pm 2019/06/11 1212 5333739 ? 05:43:58 pm EFTA01618719  2019/06/12 Larry Summers Helicopter. From where to where LS 03:55:51 pm 1212 5333739 Home now 07:10:52 pm Free 10:47:28 pm 2019/06/13 1212 5333739 http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/ Sent an attachment Filename: 39E04BDA-6C6C-42E8-9942-564ED3558484.pluginPayloadAttachment Path: 39E04BDA-6C6C-42E8-9942-564ED35584B4.pluginPayloadAttachment NIPCC Col 1 I r F (i) le. ......... kr • • I 10:00:08 am https://www.epw.senate.gov/publicLcache/files/415b9cde-e664-4628-8fb5- ae3951197d03/22514hearingwitnesstestimonymoore.pdf 10:14:32 am right on schedule for don jr testimony v: 12:06:19 pm EFTA01618720 The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is an independent agency of the United States government that protects the funds of the little guy FDIC insurance is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Since the FDIC was established in 1933, no depositor has lost a penny of FDIC-insured funds. FDIC insurance covers all deposit accounts, including: Checking accounts Savings accounts Money market deposit accounts Certificates of deposit FDIC insurance does not cover the BIG GUYS ie, other financial products and services that banks may offer, such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, life insurance policies, annuities or securities. The standard insurance amount is $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership categor 12:13:39 pm sorry not for you 12:46:49 pm Despite the replacement of point estimates with probabilistic distributions, as the authors impose, there is still no evidence that we can say anything sensible about these likelihoods. In the absence of evidence, theorists aren't theorizing based on sound science; they're simply making numbers up. The authors state their methodology as such: In this paper, we shall look at two different ways of extending this approach beyond a toy model — generating probability distributions for the parameters of the Drake equation based on the variation in historical estimates and doing so based on the authors' best judgment of the scientific uncertainties for each parameter. Unfortunately, this falls prey to what I call the first law of computer science: garbage in, garbage out. Historical estimates and the authors' judgments are no substitute for the data we need, and do not have. Sample size of one. , I II take the signature in red ink 05:16:44 pm • EFTA01618721  2019/06/14 1212 5333739 i have your answers re peril. davos , and the quote from one of the worlds greatest mathematicians. I hope he is a better economist than he is a mathematician . the question re probability of life. shows no understanding of the subject of probablilty but uses the term in its everyman context. I have asked him to write you a full explanation. 10:17:26 am 2019/06/15 in paris, weather great 08:45:35 pm • Larry Summers I II call bit later. Would u continue to dictating op Ed's for peril? Think she was off w some guy falling in love w Buddhist art? Not sure who or what. 01:35:48 pm Drake equation probability estimation is garbage in garbage out but this not same thing as saying concept of a probability is wrong. Do I think meaningful to talk about prob of trump being re-elected or my getting horizontal w peril which are one shots. LS 01:48:40 pm 1212 5333739 Cannot use the concept of probability with only one example and not a repeated space . Gromov said its a question his children might ask and hopefully only once ! 01:54:47 pm III have red ink on my summers dollar thank you. -It should be a ten as you did add - with gusto-jeffrey , that is REALLY stupid 01:56:21 pin Larry Summers • Don't know Gromov. This is clearly wrong. Soviet doctrinaire sounds like. Do u think Question of prob that stock market will rise till end of 2019 is meaningless? You have one strong willed authority with achievements in some other sphere. So what. 01:57:46 pm EFTA01618722  U r better at understanding Chinese women than at probability theory. At understanding movement of money too. LS 01:58:41 pin 1212 5333739 The stock market models as a contiuous function. With a history and many past events . More like what is the probability you being reincarnated . 02:07:53 pin Im more concerned that it may be like the probability of you in bed again with peril. . 02:09:47 pm Larry Summers • Uh oh. Lhopital s rule LS 02:21:46 pin 1212 5333739 Larry Summers Not exactly getting within the limit is NOT the same as IN 02:33:00 pm • Just called LS 02:34:41 pm 1212 5333739 Larry Summers Try now 02:47:07 pm • Just tried back 03:26:49 pm EFTA01618723  U called but I couldn't hear anything LS 03:34:09 pm 1212 5333739 https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/06/15/us/15reuters-new-jersey-airport.html? action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage LIjcNcuv1lorkLima 07:44:21 pm Larry Summers Got it LS 10:37:15 pm EFTA01618724  1212 5333739 Subjective probability is a type of probability derived from an individual's personal judgment or own experience about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions and past experience rather than on data or computation. Subjective probabilities differ from person to person and contain a high degree of personal bias. 11:54:09 pm 2019/06/16 Larry Summers This is silly. LS 12:11:12am V Read 1212 5333739 Exactly 12:13:45 am v Sent EFTA01618725