EFTA01435987.pdf

Subject: RE: XPO Logistics and FEDEX [I] From: Martin Zeman < II> Date: Tue, 06 Mar 2018 11:59:53 -0500 To: Stewart Oldfield e > Classification: For internal use only I agree. I flew in the cockpit of Fedex planes last year 4-5 times. Love the company... I just didn't know that on relative value basis UPS is so much behind Fedex. From: Stewart Oldfield Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2018 11:53 AM To: Martin Zeman e > Subject: RE: XPO Logistics and FEDEX [I] I love the sector. And the CEO of XPO is the real deal. From: Martin Zeman Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2018 11:52 AM To: Stewart Oldfield e > Subject: RE: XPO Logistics and FEDEX [I] Classification: For internal use only I know but I just personally know nada about them. I think selling puts and collecting premium on all 3 would make sense for him. He really is not in that industry at all. From: Stewart Oldfield Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2018 11:48 AM To: Martin Zeman e > EFTA01435987 Subject: RE: XPO Logistics and FEDEX KNX is his other top pick fyi From: Martin Zeman Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2018 11:45 AM To: 'Paul Barrett ( )' < :t. Cc: Joshua Shoshan • Davide-A Sferrazza avie ; Stewart Oldfield Subject: XPO Logistics and FEDEX Paul, Please see attached 1-pager published two weeks ago (and also a more detailed report on the industry). Our analyst is really bullish on FEDEX and XPO and doesn't like UPS which really got beat up last few weeks. What I think makes sense is picking up premium on puts on these two stocks that you should be long if they dip lower from current levels. You get $4.50 for $220 June Fedex Puts (the stock now at $242 and still 10% down to January highs). When it comes to XPO, you can get $2.45 for May 90 Puts (we have a $133 target on that stock and I recently sat in a meeting with our analyst and he clearly is very bullish this company). My point is, you have nothing in logistics and you could be long a more defensive industry if you get exercised on stocks that have really good growth stories. On UPS — they really got beat lately, but they are way behind in capex investments compared to where Fedex is and their automation levels are 20 EFTA01435988 years behind Fedex now. Could be a punt, but not sure it makes sense trying to catch a falling knife on a story that is not attractive. Martin {cid:[email protected]} Martin Zeman Director I Key Client Partners Deutsche Bank Wealth Management DB Securities Inc 345 Park Avenue, 10154-0004 New York, NY, USA Tel. +1(212) 250-0432 Mobile Email KCP products and services are intended and available only for persons who are sophisticated institutional investors within the meaning of the FINRA Rule 4512(C)(3), and who are capable of evaluating the strategies, characteristics and investment risks of, and exercising independent judgment in evaluating, the ideas and products discussed herein. Trades and transactions are subject to relevant internal approvals of DBSI or its affiliates prior to execution, and the execution of any transaction or idea discussed herein is conditional on your becoming a client of Deutsche Bank. Key Client Partners (KCP) products, investment ideas and solutions and related matters discussed herein are provided for discussion purposes only, and strictly on a non-advisory basis. The KCP Americas desk does not provide investment advice. The information set forth herein is confidential and personal to you and is being presented for your information and for discussion purposes only. Any reproduction and/or redistribution thereof (in whole or in part) or disclosure of its content without our written consent is strictly forbidden. This communication does not create any legally binding obligation on the part of DBSI or any of its affiliates. EFTA01435989