📄 Extracted Text (2,896 words)
AudioEye:
Investment thesis:
About six to nine months ago David Moradi (DM) called me that he had
an interesting private deal that he thought I would be interested in. It
would include stock with warrants attached, but I would have to
become restricted in the stock. I immediately told him "say no more; I
do not want to know anything about this deal because being restricted
in any stock is not an option for Tourmaline". There was no way that
we could tell our most important partner Blackstone Senfina or any
other client that we are restricted in a stock. He did say it was highly
unlikely that they would ever trade in the stock, but he understood.
Several months later, I went to dinner with DM; as all our dinners go,
we mostly talked about his investments. This is when he told me about
AudioEye (AEYE). He told me he had been invested in this company for
several years and really liked it. He thought that they had a market
leading technology that could be used by 5% to 10% of the population
who are deaf or blind. The example he used is how does a blind person
book and use UBER? There is no phone number to call. He also said
that there are laws in place or coming as part of the Americans with
Disabilities Act (ADA) that would start to force internet sites to provide
access for people with these disabilities. Furthermore, one of the
members of AEYE board was Tony Coelho who was the primary sponsor
of Americans with Disabilities Act. Below is a link that will discuss
further ADA compliance and within the article are other links that
discuss how large firms like Facebook, Netflix, Southwest Airlines and
Target have had lawsuits filed against them for noncompliance to ADA
laws.
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technology/the-focus-of-the-ada-turns-to-websites-in-the-digital-age-
is-your-website-compliant/
DM also said that the management team that used to be in charge at
AEYE ran the company poorly. Despite having a great technology they
were poor managers and DM felt were running the company into the
ground. He used his influence as a large shareholder to change remove
the old management team and bring in a good management team. He
very much likes this management group because they have cut costs
significantly to the point that he believes AEYE could be cash flow
positive either this year or next if they can grow sales. Also, the new
management team are large shareholders and therefore incentivized to
run the company in a manner that will benefit all shareholders. AEYE
has been adding new sales people, and based on the most recent
earnings filing they are adding bookings. They are selling to real
companies, for example Mutual of Omaha. You can go the Mutual of
Omaha web site and see how it works as well as the AEYE site itself.
Software bookings: In software, and I am sure many other subscription
or licensing sales models, companies can only account for sales after
the revenue has been received. For example, if AEYE gets a contract to
provide their software for one year deal at a price of $120,000 they can
only recognize income as the revenue is earned over the course of the
year. So for 01, they would book sales of $30,000 and the remaining
$90,000 would remain deferred income. Why is this important and
why does it excite DM and make him believe that AEYE is turning the
corner to profitability or EBITDA positive? Well, if they booked
$1,153,000 as of their August 2 business update, they will probably
have total revenue of $1.5 to $2.0 million this year.
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AEYE is not a get rich quick company. There are no events or near term
catalyst that I am buying into. My purchases have been periodic spread
over four months. Many days in those months I made no purchases
and there was no volume. Yes on some days, my purchases were a
large percent of volume, but that is for a few key reasons including the
fact that there was no urgency to my purchases and therefore I would
place an order on the bid side of the market and wait until a seller
would sell me stock at my price. If I was not hit then I did not buy.
AudioEye is simply a company with an interesting product with no real
competitors as far as DM knows. The only companies that do what
AEYE does are consultant businesses who come in do work then leave.
DM thinks that if AEYE has revenue of $2 million for 2016, they could
increase to a range of $4M to $6M in 2017 and $8M to $12M in 2018
and so on. With revenue growth potential like this along with their high
gross margins, he believes AEYE is undervalued and over the next
several years the stock could rise from the current $0.15 to $1.00 to
$2.00 by 2018. An important caveat is that revenues and booking
could be very lumpy meaning that some quarters may look good and
others may not look so good.
This is clearly not a riskless investment. Technology in software can
change quickly. There may be many other companies that exist with
better technology in development. But a risk adjusted loss of $0.15 per
share versus a potential gain of $0.85 to $1.85 over the next three to
five years seems reasonable.
Why does DM tell me about his investment ideas?
This is where he and I connect. Frankly he is an odd guy and does not
talk much about anything beyond investing. A two hour dinner with
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him, one on one, feels like 10 hours. I have continued to keep in
contact with him because he says he believes that he is going to ramp
back up his investments in the public markets soon. Of note, he does
not believe that he will ever be anything but a family office because he
prefers to invest in smaller underfollowed stocks with more upside
potential. I recollect that he has said that he has been up significantly
since closing Anthion and becoming a family office. He believes his
opportunity set is much larger as a smaller more nimble fund and he
does not have the distractions of investors.
I have tried to stay in front of DM because, as we all know, he is
probably still our largest client or in the top five despite closing his fund
several years ago. I believe that DM is very conscious of what is legal
and what is not legal in the securities industry and he is very careful to
be compliant. He certainly is not going to risk his wealth to try and
enrich me. David is overall distrusting of, for the most part everyone,
and especially and in particular the government.
The questions that I have, if everyone else thinks DM is not reputable,
should we fire him as a client? As far as I know, he has a clean record
and has never had any legal issues despite his aggressive investment
style.
MY INVESTMENT STRATEGY:
I have always been an investor. My first investment was a purchase of
Fidelity Magellan, managed by legendary investor Peter Lynch, when I
was in 8th Grade. I have invested ever since. I believe in investing for
the long term. I do not believe in short term investments or day
trading. I estimate that my average holding period is between five and
ten years. I have attached my largest holdings at the end of this
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document as an example. I do add to a holding that I have owned for a
long time if the price is right. I also sell sometimes, but very, very
rarely. I do not believe that anyone has the ability to predict short term
moves in any investment and therefore I do not try to invest that way. I
like to buy when there is market dislocation as displayed by all the
purchases in 2008 and during Q4 or 2015 and 01 of 2016.
When I make an investment, I view it as buying a small piece of a good
business. I own GOOGL at $793.00 and I own AEYE at $0.15 and stocks
at all different share prices and market capitalizations. The share price
and market capitalization are not relevant to me. The financials, the
business, and the risk versus return are what I value. I do not care if a
stock trades on NASDQ, NYSE, and OTC, Pink sheets or international.
An interesting example of an investment:
March 2006 I bought 1,000,000 shares of Regis Resources at
approximately $0.10 (later had a reverse 10/1 split so the $.10 now
equaled $1.00) based on the recommendation of one of the best clients
of Williams Trading, Boo Callanan who worked at Rubicon. I could not
buy the local in Australia RRL AU because of my account set up was for
US stocks only but I could buy the fungible pink sheet in the US market
RGRNF. Interestingly, Henry sat next to me at the time and also made
an investment in the local RRL AU.
I have always believed that investing alongside of your clients in their
best ideas shows partnership and trust with them, and also helps keep
more focus on their key holdings. If they go out of their way to make a
recommendation they are typically convicted. Many of my best
investments were recommended to by clients.
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How did the Regis investment work out? Not so well for Boo, in
November of 2007 his fund forced him to liquidate his position
aggressively driving the stock down to less than $0.10 -90% from my
purchase price. I believe that Henry made money; I do not know how
much but I know he has subsequently liquidated his entire position. I
also have sold 75% of my position and made money. Here is the
important part. Over 10.5 years later and significant volatility I still own
25% of my position at a value of $2.91 and 180% return. This is a
perfect example of how I invest for the long term. This is another
example of how I partner with accounts, connect with accounts and I
am able to discuss positions that are important to them. This is my
edge compared to everyone else.
Why do I think Brett bought AEYE?
Brett is my back up. I have taken him through the character of each
account. I point out how they trade and what sort of stocks they trade
in. I told him about my dinner with DM and his excitement for AEYE.
Furthermore, in an effort to protect against errors, Brett listens too
many of my calls with all of our clients so we can double check orders.
He has also heard calls between me and DM discussing AEYE. He
comes to his own investment decisions and I do not know his process
but clearly he invests.
Why did Larry buy AEYE?
I believe that Larry overheard some my discussion about my dinner
with DM and asked me if I think it was worth buying. I do not recall my
response, but I certainly said DM thinks that it is his best risk return
investment. I also mentioned that I may buy some. He did not tell me
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that he was going to buy any AEYE until months later despite asking
about it several times.
Worth noting, about a year ago Larry asked me for a personal meeting
because he was doing better financially and wanted to start investing.
He said he wanted to start with Ailanthus and ask a few others he
covered such as Broad Run. I told him that this is a good way to start.
It would show partnership with his clients and demonstrate that they
are all on the same page. Furthermore, I believe that seeing 100% of a
funds trades give great transparency into funds who will be successful.
Quite honestly, I was flattered that Larry asked, since I realize that Larry
is bright and can make his own investment decisions. He knows that I
have recommended funds to East Rock and they are obviously
sophisticated investors. If my advice is good enough for them it would
be valuable to Larry also. Larry knows that I recommended Mangrove
and Jericho to East Rock. Furthermore, Mangrove is East Rock's best
investment this year and maybe ever. This has given me and
Tourmaline a marquee product placement with East Rock and all of us
have benefited tremendously. Likely, there would be no Oskie,
Coltrane, Western Standard, Newtyn, Nantahala, Foundation or Valarc
without them.
Do I recommend stocks or investments to any of our employees?
Since we started Tourmaline, I have only recommended one investment
to anyone at Tourmaline. As several who are reading this are aware I
think Evan Wax of Wax Asset Management is one of the most unique
investors and funds I have ever come across. I believe that an
investment like this accomplishes the exact goal for those who are not
experienced investors. He is an excellent manager and because he is an
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independent investor, it is not as distracting as buying individual stocks
which, for many, can be distracting and more risky. I recommended
Larry and Brett look at this as an investment similar to many of you who
have asked me.
I ask all of you. Do I recommend investments to you excluding Wax? I
think not. I learned my lesson long ago that everyone has a different
risk tolerance, time horizon and personal traits that make it challenging
to give stock advice. As several of you know, I recommended Hy-drive
to too many and they all lost on money. I have not given individual
stock advice since then and that was roughly ten years ago.
What is my point?
Optically, I totally understand the oddity and concern of seeing three
people in the same firm buying an extremely random unknown pink
sheet stock that we have also had a client transact. Certainly an
explanation is warranted and helpful in understanding the situation
more clearly. I understand concerns that on some days AEYE stock
moves 10% to 25% but keep in mind the bid offer spread can be $0.02
cents or more. This does not seem like much but if the bid is $0.12 and
the offer is $0.14 merely buying on the offer side moves the stock 17%
and selling on the bid side 14%.
Should I have had had another partner than myself approve Brett's
purchases in AEYE since I already had a position? Yes, I think that is
logical. Should I have told Brett and Larry not to buy a stock that I
thought was good enough for me? Perhaps, but that is a tough place to
be since I am buying AEYE as a long term investment and nothing more
than that. For the most part, I never want others to buy stocks that I
am trying to accumulate because as a value investor I always want to
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buy more at lower prices. Other buyers hold shares up at higher prices
prohibiting me from buying at better prices. Furthermore, as an
employer I do not want to be viewed as telling employees what stocks
to buy and or sell or how to invest their money. I do not and will not
tell them how to invest their money in individual stocks. Each
individual must evaluate their circumstance and invest in accordance
with their investment philosophy.
Based on the way that I invest in stocks for the long term I am not
mindset of thinking that anything illicit was occurring. I am not thinking
that there is an event or catalyst that prompted my investment
decision. I was patient to spend four months buying, waiting for better
prices. If the better prices never came, I was content not to buy.
In the end, I think many assumptions were made with very little
background information. Granted, based on the facts available further
investigation was warranted. This is my attempt to fill in the blanks as I
recollect.
Should we have a new policy?
I think Henry's idea of adding a reason for buying or selling makes
sense. I do not believe it has to be overly complicated, but we could
have a checklist consisting of some selections such as: long term
investment, add on weakness, suggested by advisor, and so forth. I
believe that greater explanation can be requested if necessary or more
clarity is required.
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I also recommend we should extend our holding period to at least three
months. I do not believe that would alter anyone's investment style
but optically I think it sounds better to clients who ask about the policy.
Thank you for taking the time to read this. I am happy discuss anything
involved in this document further.
Ike
symbol initial purchase most recent purchase years held
dis 8/1/2002 7/16/2002 14
bwxt 6/8/2004 8/13/2008 12
rgrnf 3/30/2006 3/30/2006 10
cvg 12/28/2007 1/25/2008 9
cbm 5/9/2008 5/9/2008 8
mrk 4/1/2008 3/26/2008 8
gong / googl 2/26/2008 2/26/2008 8
Iblya,lbtyk, lila, lilak 7/8/2008 7/8/2008 8
lyb 5/3/2010 9/1/2010 6
aapl 7/25/2012 1/15/2013 4
mdr 10/17/2014 1/14/2015 2
ctrp 7/18/2014 12/5/2014 2
cld 3/10/2015 12/4/2015 1.5
Ing 12/23/2015 2/4/2016 1
indicates stock splits
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ℹ️ Document Details
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EFTA00293501
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