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AudioEye:
Investment thesis:
About six to nine months ago, David Moradi (DM) called told me that
he had an interesting private deal that he thought I would be interested
in. It would include stock and with warrants attached, but I would have
to become restricted in the stock. I immediately told him "say no more,
I do not want to know anything about this deal because being restricted
in any stock is not an option for Tourmaline". There was no way that
we could tell our most important partner Blackstone Senfina that we
are restricted in a stock. He did say it was highly unlikely that they
would ever trade in the stock, but he understood.
Several months later, I went to dinner with DM, as all our dinners go,
we mostly talked about his investments. This is when he told me about
AudioEye (AEYE). He told me he had been invested in this company for
several years and really liked it. He thought that they had a market
leading technology that could be used by 5% to 10% of the population
that who are deaf or blind. The example he used is how does a blind
person book and use UBER? There is no phone number to call. He also
said that there are laws in place or coming as part of the Americans
with Disabilities Act that would start to force internet sights to provide
access with-for these disabilities. Furthermore one of the members of
AEYE board was Tony Coelho who was the primary sponsor of
Americans with Disabilities Act.
DM also said that the management team that used to be in charge at
AEYE was very bad. Despite having a great technology they were 19-a-cl
poor managers, and DM felt they were running the company into the
ground. He used his influence as a large shareholder to get rid of
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thechange the old management team and bring in a good management
team. He very much likes this new management group because they
cut costs significantly to the point that he thinks beleives they could be
cash flow positive either this year or next if they can grow sales. Also,
they-the new management team are large shareholders and therefore
incentivized to run the company in a manner that will benefit all
shareholders. AEYE has been adding new sales people, and based on
the most recent earnings filing they are adding bookings. They are
selling to real companies, for example Mutual of Omaha. You can go
the Mutual of Omaha web site and see how it works as well as the AEYE
site itself.
Software bookings: In software and I am sure many other sales
companies can only account for sales as they arc realizedwhen they
have a signed contract. For example, if AEYE gets a contract to provide
their services and it is afor a one year deal fer-at $120,000, they can
only fealize-the-Feyentlerecognize income as the revenue is realized--this
is-a-beeki-ng-ef-reyentieearned over the course of the year. So for 01,
they would book sales of $30,000, and the remaining $90,000 would
remain in deferred income. Why is this important and why does it
excited DM and make him believe that AEYE is turning the corner to
profitability or EBITDA positive—? Well, if they booked $1,153,000 as of
their August 2 business update, they will probably have total revenue of
$1.5 to $2.0 million this year, and potentially more since many new
contracts may be kicking in now. If their sales rates continue, this
revenues may continue to grow.
AEYE is not a get rich quick company. There are no events or near term
catalyst that I am buying €erinto. My purchases have been periodic
spread over three months. Many days, in those months there were
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was no purchases volume at all. Yes on some days, I was a, my
purchases were a very large percent of volume, but that is for a few key
reasons including the fact that there was no urgency to my purchases
and therefore I would place a bid on the bid side of the market and wait
until a seller would sell me stock on the bid side of the market. If I was
not hit then I did not buy.
AudioEye is simply a company with an interesting product with no real
competitors as far as DM knows. They only companies that do what
AEYE does are consultant businesses who-will come in do work and be
ge-neleave. DM thinks that if AEYE has revenue of $2 million for 2016,
they could be-increase $4M to $6M in 2017, and $8M to $12M in 2018.
With revenue growth potential like this arld-along with their high gross
margins, he thinlEs-beleives AEYE is undervalued and over the next
several years the stock could-ge rise from the current x.15 to $1.00 to
$2.00 by 2018. Very-mueh-wer-ell-Reting-anel-aAn important caveat is
that revenues and booking could be very lumpy meaning that some
quarters may look good and others may not look so good.
I think also worth noting is that software and technology changes very
fast. There may be many other companies out there with better
technology and clearly at x.15 stocks is not without risk. But a risk
adjusted return of potential loss of x.15 per share and offset with a
potential gain of-1.85 to X1.85 over the next three to five years this
seems reasonable.
Clearly this stock is so small and underfollowed, there are few
institutional investors. DM believes he knows many of the investors
since any one of significance has been involved in the private deals that
he has invested over the past two years.
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Why does DM tell me about his investment ideas?
This is where he and I connect. Frankly he is an eel-el-usual guy and does
not talk much about anything else. A two hour dinner with him one on
one feels like 10 hours. But I will say I have continued to keep in
contact with him because he says and he feels beleives that he is going
to ramp back up his investments in the public markets soon. Of note,
he does not thi-nk-believe that he will ever be anything but a family
office because he prefers to invest in smaller underfollowed stocks with
more upside potential. I do think recollect that he has said that he has
been up significantly since closing Anthion and becoming a family
office.
I have tried to stay in front of DM because, as we all know, he is
probably still our largest client or in the top five despite closing his fund
several years ago. I think also worth noting. I t-la-i-n-l€believe that DM is
very conscious of what is legal and what is not legal in the securities
industry and he is very careful to be compliant. He told me he spends
a lot of money on legal fees and overall is distrusting of, for the most
part,_ everyone laut-and especially and in particular the government,-in
particular
The questions that I have, are if everyone else thinks DM is not
reputable should we fire him as a client?-: As far as I know, he has a
clean record and has never had any legal issues.
MY INVESTMENT STRATEGY:
I have always been an investor. I first bought Fidelity Magellan when I
was in 8th Grade. I have invested ever since. I believe in investing for
the long term. I do not believe in short term investments or day
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trading. I estimate that my average holding period is between five and
ten years. I do add to holding that I have owned for a long time if the
price is right. I also sell sometimes, but very, very rarely. I do not
believe that anyone has the ability to predict short term moves in any
investment and therefore I do not try to invest that way.
When I make an investment, I view it as buying a small piece of a
business. I own GOOGL at $793.00 and I own AEYE at .15 and stocks at
all different share prices and market capitalizations. The share price
and market capitalization are not relevant to me, the financials and the
business are what is relevant. I do not care if a stock trades on NASDQ,
NYSE, and OTC, Pink sheets or international.
An interesting example of an investment:
March 2006 I bought 1,000,000 shares of Regis Resources at
approximately 0.10 (later had a reverse 10/1 split) based on the
recommendation of one of our best clients of Williams Trading, Boo
Callanan who worked at Rubicon. I could not buy the local in Australia
RRL AU because of my account set up was for US stocks only but I could
buy the pink sheet in the US market RGRNF. Interestingly Henry sat
next to me at the time and also made the investment in the RRL AU.
I have always believed that investing alongside of your clients in their
best ideas shows partnership and trust with them, and also helps keep
more focus on their key holdings.
How did the Regis investment work out? No so well for Boo, in
November of 2007 his fund forced him to liquidate his long aggressively
driving the stock down to less than .10. I believe that Henry made
money; I do not know how much and has subsequently liquidated his
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position. is now out. I also have sold 75% of my position and made
money. Here is the important part. Over 10.5 years later I still own
25% of my position and today the shares trade at $2.91. This is a
perfect example of how I invest for the long term. This is another
example of how I partner with accounts, connect with accounts and I
am able to discuss positions that are important to them. This is my
edge compared to everyone else.
Why do I think Brett bought AEYE?
Brett is my back up. I have taken him through the character of each
account. I point out l=l-ewhow they trade and what sort of stocks they
trade in. I told him about my dinner with DM and subsequent
conversations on the phone with DM. Furthermore, in an effort to
protect for error Brett listens too many of my calls with other clients so
we can double check orders. He has also heard calls with DM
discussing AEYE. He comes to his own investment decisions and I do
not know his process, but clearly he invests.
Why did Larry buy AEYE?
I believe that Larry has overheard some he-alse-was-145tenifig4e-my
discussions about my dinner with DM and asked me if I think it was
worth buying. I do not recall my response, but I certainly said DM
thinks that it is his best risk return investment, and that I also
mentioned that I may buy some. He did not tell me that he was going
to buy into this company any until months later.
Worth noting about a year ago, Larry asked me for a personal meeting
because he was doing better financially and wanted to start investing.
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He said he wanted to start with Ailanthus and ask a few others he
covered such as Broad Run. I told him that that this is a good way to
start. It thould would partnership with his clients and shows
demonstrate them that they are all on the same page. Furthermore, I
believe that seeing 100% of a funds trades give great transparency into
funds who will be successful.
Quite honestly, I was flattered that Larry asked, but at the same time
he is not stupidl realize that Larry is bright and can make his own
investment decisions. He knows that I recommended opportunities
funds to East Rocki and-they are obviously sophisticated investors. I
might add that Mangrove is afar-and-away East Rocks best investment
this year, and maybe ever. But also I do think I am good at this and can
pick winners in funds just like I can in stocks. This has given me, and
Tourmaline Partners a marquee product placement with East Rock and
all of us have benefited tremendously. There would be no Oskie,
Coltrane, Western Standard, Newtyn, Nantahala, Foundation or Valarc
without them.
Do I recommend stocks or investments to any of our employees?
Since we started Tourmaline, I have only recommended one investment
to anyone at Tourmaline. As several who are reading this are aware, I
think believe that Evan Wax of Wax Asset Management is one of the
most unique investors and funds I have ever come across. I think
believe that an investment like this accomplishes the exact goal for
those who are not experienced investors. He is an excellentA great
manager, and because he is an independent investor, it is not as
distracting as buying stocks that for many which can be distracting.
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I ask all of you. Do I recommend investments to you excluding Wax? I
think not. I learned my lesson long ago that everyone have has a
different risk tolerance, time horizon and personal traits that make it
challenging to give stock advice. As several of you know, I
recommended Hy dirve drive to tea-many and they all lost on money. I
have not given individual stock advice since then and that was roughly
ten years ago.
What is my point?
Optically, I totally understand the oddity and concern of seeing three
people in the same firm buying an extremely random unknown pink
sheet stock that we have also had a client transact. Certainly an
explanation is warranted and helpful in understanding the situation
more clearly. I understand concerns that on some days AEYE stock
moves 10% to 25%, but keep in mind the bid offer spread is almost
always .02 cents or more. This does not seem like much but if the bid is
.12 and the offer are .14 merely buying on the offer side moves the
stock 17% and selling on the offer side 14%.
Should I have had better judgement thanhad another partner to
approve others purchasing shares since I already had a positions in
AEYE? Yes perhaps, but that is a tough place to be since I knew-wliy4
am buying AEYE as a long term investment and nothing more than that.
To be honest I never want other to buy my stocks because as a value
investor I always want to buy more at lower prices, other buyers get in
my way. Furthermore, as an employer, I do not want to be viewed as
-in the position of telling our employees what stocks to buy and/or sell.
or how to invest their moncyl do not and will not tell them how to
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invest their money. This is a no win situation as we know.Each
individual must evaluate his circumstance and invest in accordance with
their investment philosophy.
14h-in-k-this-is-alse-har-d-bec-ause-ef-the-wayBased on the way that I
invest in stocks for the long term, I am not mindset of thinking that
anything illicit was occurring. I am not thinkingdo not believe that
there is an event or catalyst that prompted my investment decision. I
was happy patient to spend several months buying, waiting for better
prices. If the better prices never came, I was content not to buy.
Should we have a new policy?
I think Henry's idea of adding a reason for buying or selling makes
sense. I do not thick-believe that it has to be overly in
depthcomplicated, but we could have a checklist consisting of some
selections such as: long term investment, add on weakness, suggested
by advisor, and so forth. l-think beleive that we can always ask for
greater explanation can be requested if we desire necessary or more
clarity is required..
I also think recommend we should extend our holding period to at least
three months. I do not think beleive that would change the way most
invest, but optically I think it sounds better to clients who ask about the
policy.
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Thank you for taking the time to read this. I am happy discuss anything
involved in this document further.
Ike
symbol initial purchase most recent purchase years held
dis 8/1/2002 7/16/2002 14
bwxt 6/8/2004 8/13/2008 12
rgrnf 3/30/2006 3/30/2006 10
cvg 12/28/2007 1/25/2008 9
cbm 5/9/2008 5/9/2008 8
mrk 4/1/2008 3/26/2008 8
goog / googl 2/26/2008 2/26/2008 8
Iblya,lbtyk, lila, lilak 7/8/2008 7/8/2008 8
lyb 5/3/2010 9/1/2010 6
aapl 7/25/2012 1/15/2013 4
mdr 10/17/2014 1/14/2015 2
ctrp 7/18/2014 12/5/2014 2
cld 3/10/2015 12/4/2015 1.5
Ing 12/23/2015 2/4/2016 1
indicates stock splits
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ℹ️ Document Details
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EFTA00293511
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