EFTA01459729.pdf

5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet 3o,. 1: News by quartets SIREN based on reference quarters Indicators published around the same SIREN by refinance quarter captures the macro momentum (Fig. 6) and date may refer to different quarters" surprises (Fig. 7) across quarters by summing news based on reference dates. Separating outcomes based on reference rather than release dates With the advanced estimate of Q4-15 GDP scheduled for next week. helps to Id spot turning points and SIREN-Momentum continues to point to high 0.4% qoq for euro O4 GDP. more generally better capture current Surveys point to 0.5% while hard data are less optimistic. Our forecast for dynamics O4 GDP growth is relatively more modest at 0.35% qoq. Hard data appear to justify our caution. While SIREN-Surprise for O4 continues to be more positive than in the previous two quarters. 01 data have disappointed significantly. The current quarter's initial movement has been the worst start since O2 2013. ['Fig. 6: SIRENMomentum by reference quarter iFig. 7: SIREN-Surprise by reference quartr 9046-96%* 6596430% 5014-66% 60%430% 40460% 30%40% 201601 — 2015 04 201503 201601 —201604 2011.'03 2015 02 201602 I.0 10.8 1 2 08 I § ao.4 I 0.0 20 ito -----res---r70— 140 Cloys Sinre Val of quarter 0016 since StOst Olquarter 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 • Masa ama paean our since 044006 ”Nos nap sham I emot'Ma avows GOPat Ma. lone Oar Ma • r• rat nthha nab ar no IMO Mad alany are arnakearani rerbeenummemarmornyaner OOP tam Daanhant ffi eta Mmenaanancet 009e nabs, lam t Ma ran ate manaar Combining SIREN-Momentum and Surprise into one metric • With little movement in underlying indices, DB-Point remained close to lest week's low. DB-Point is at nearly two year low, albeit at far better level than the readings in the past two recessions. iFig. 8 and 9: Combining SIREN-Momentum and Surprise into Distance from the Bliss Point (DB-Point) Moat Momentum limerelo • Distance to the Bliss Pant inverted axis as a lower value means -2 I 2 either better surprises anclice• better macro momentum 3 2 • epee I 01 Y.,t rent.. 5tonned oev•ton 13 Dole ofdolt rekose *05 Feb 2016 • One month ago eOct-2014 •Juti-2012 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan -10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 •a • ntianinolsaner frorn a pann Mei 20101. Wont a a Sat Ina a Pena On 2 Naar the as Oa mar canatta a a ant a keep earuelmammas.** ease am Sao Vasa trant. Maimarks Lk MOMSanclatallint Mama. ansral.Ma. aro awssaannan the authors wish to acknowledge the contabutionmade by Boger Lid/ E g in mid January. industrial production for November of tne preview yens released foaowed the %seek alter by the Flash PMIs for January of that year Both indcatoes can affect asset prices on the release date but they refer to different quarters e the fnta provde a more up-to-date picture Page 22 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120378 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00268582 EFTA01459729