EFTA01459728.pdf

5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet Eurozone Economics Mruon Stnotta <:FA tic WW1, WOW Senior Economist Strategist 1+44) 20 754-74900 1.44120 754.76615 [email protected] nkisoles.wengCedb.com SIREN: Euro-macro surprises remain negative SIREN (Summary index of Relevant Economic News) monitors daily both how Surprises remain negative quickly the euro-area is growing (Momentum)►and how outcomes compare L44.4.441.”...0,741.1 —....-4p1111.144.44424 —51 11111Syyne with expectations (Surprise). Individual indicators are weighted by their ability 10 94.14102443.1110/40, to forecast GDP out-of-sample. Both SIREN components correlate closely but °a tend to lead similar indices. SIREN is reported based on release dates (Fig. 1, 2 Os & 3) as well as on reference dates (Fig. 6 & 7). D8-Point combines SIREN- 04 Momentum and Surprise in a single metric (Fig. 8 & 9) - Link to full guide. 01 00 • SIREN-Momentum Was broadly unchanged over the week. A positive 02 contribution from euro area retail sales was offset by weakness in Ireland's 04 industrial production and Germany's manufacturing orders (all data were for December). The final print for January euro-area PMIs was in line with Owe Idea teleese the flash reading. c:,. ,1 Mr -, • SIREN•Surprise remained close to its IS-month low. SIREN-Surprise is Sane we Mg 24 significantly more volatile than its sister momentum index, but in 2008 and 2012 it provided an early signal. That, said, SIREN-Surprise remains well above the levels in the 2008 and 2012 recessions as shown in Fig. 3. Fig.2: SIREN-Momentum - Is the euro-area economy IFig. 3: SIREN-Surprise - Is euro-area growth faster or accelerating or decelerating? (BBG: DBSKMEA Index)• Islower than expected? (BBG: DBSFISEA Index)" 2 En:went/ay weighted SterideresSed 3-nyonth macro momentum 3 .- Exponentaly weighted standardised 3-month supnses 2 I 0 -2 -3 Dote of clotttrtiont -5 12EllgittEliTifSta Jan-08 Jan- I 0 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-08 Jan-08 Jan-I0 Jan -12 Jan-I4 Jan -16 Key monthly contributions to SIREN-Momentum (Fig 4) and to SIREN-Surprise (Fig. 5)" 0.10 84.2 fik* Went he 005 0.00 81e:' .5:e 0.05 - 000 Il III •:1 - __MI 4.os 4.10 .0 10 4.15 EA Ger It. EA EA Ger IP Fre IP EA Ger EA IP Gee Its Fee Fre Gee Ger EASer. EA EA EA IP Retail Cons Cons Cost' PMI_M Cons Man ZEW Cass Core Retort Cons Elus Cent PMI_S Sales Cent Cant Coot Ord Cool Cent Sates Cent Coot - ern an ari re APV20Teitie erposr Mutt emµard xe 0 44 ,tlerflibrma1,11444 AIRY Near* 11,144 anstea Sew MedecInas n N. 2 rweesen 4ec*'v wq GOP • •b+axwyers b eximaat (winos we /nowt° one, wenn, or MOE rt e Olov Deka the anaew wrxeweeconrcato. Oh< tonna en vaned fro— the bff44,0,44241.2%, Muth wwWvi Scarce WAS patio. ay* line M.Sets Navvy/ Sran2r442.24ket 8irrofler9 e tp , Ant Sad InntNW C.0.en, Deutsche Bank AG/London hags 21 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120377 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266561 EFTA01459728