EFTA01459075.pdf

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights What's normal S&P EPS growth? It depends on EPS retention. [Figure 44: S&P nominal and real trailing 4-qtr EPS growth (yiy chg) S&P 500 EPS CAGR from 60% 1960-2013 was 50% Nominal. 6.7% 40% Real 2.9% 30% 1960-2013 Nomnal CAG 6 P, 20% \ A 10% 0% .10% -20% 1960- a 3 Real CAGR 2 6% -30% -40% EEEE555EEEEEEEN§§ Series2 ----- Nommal lyr EPSgrovah Real lyr EPSgrowth Sal • Sill• 0•141Ch• an IFigure 45: Rolling 3yr and 10yr Real EPS growth Rolling .3yr and 10yr CAGR of real EPS growth show higher 30% Median RoingReal EPS Growth: EPS growth since mid 1990s 1960-19433: 3yr CAGR 1.2%;10yrCAGR: 1.9% 20% 199:1.20t3: 3y r CAGR 7.3%; 10yr CAGR: 5.4% than from 1960 ro 1990 10% 411 0% -10% -20% I § N VVi 'å !! § § § 2 2 — Rolling 3yr Real EPS CAGR Rolling I 0yrReal EPS CAGR Sant SV. o~ Ist Page 27 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119291 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265475 EFTA01459075