EFTA01459074.pdf

Deutsche Sank Securities Inc Figure 43- Our S&P :,„ -.14Insic Valuation Model S&P 500 Cocaine FPS Vinton 5W 600 Oirlderd Mama Model SarP100 Lenten EIS & DIS Growth S&P KO CM te Este& Fr loot Ma Dotaochs Ronk', 2015E S&P 500 EPS 8118 Doutseho Bute 3016E SW 600 DPS $81.00 Douses* s2015E S&P 50) Own» ROE 59% For careen, RomTsa mainonS&P MO index 750% 7015E dvdcod omvol Kst o 34% 2014 red &BPS«, bak vane( are CO~YR$ dwomnd far 5&P500 Ter„r• Oln 'men 2016E" S&P 600 (PS DEI9 Monet 20112'S&PIKO OPS $4101 DB 's Real* 2015€' S&P 500 Mtg.. 0.0E 147% • Longlem ale Tik tree area Tate 110% 'Jr,'. 20151' PS/ 2015E (PS 100% Nose d vdaid Phon: ro 37% • Laspaym a r S&P 500 *my ns< carnal' 4.00% S&P500 EPS Mond fee It. reimetmont 31)% • &maimrod S&PMon 0 048/4 $5011 coumy qa ty $urrea: to o 1 4 / -n EPS -MOO EPS bend tonne mom rotram« STS 50 Estimated ROE on ~mod S&P 500 EPS 7.&)% • Lonnorm infmrn 'orient 7 PYRT. tkart shwa wanes* Kayos to 24% Econemio morn EH ef ROC-CesE 0.0% ▪ S&P 930 Rand ens of Koff 7.00% MIS 2012 S&P 600 FPS fir» ~Am 5110 Taal met ol S&P 50) EPS å6750 Sources ol barnways grow:, • "P SÅERPma0 Ø4006P; W ree(CoE 5 5% - 6 5% Key crnc oe sT44KST-vre a a • Taass E 7S i Teel CcP Tin peso& ra el% • LogoennrØ faeces: 200% • Rat Tarn cane Ternerr« 2 13% for SSP 500 Mork« Wks Ø Beset Yet* WORe 5 500 :'S Cfciriza-m feces SR 500 3P4Doemee la= • Via ban min on yeti min.:lawn 000% 201‘ re S&PSOOboot *area 5250 orma EPS/:N1 CoE T.EMS:4vouti Eke Wirer OPS / Internal D:E-OPS gown • Lonerem swarm proem 413% Far PB • For PE • ',errs preen ROE 267 500 rinmsc wisest 2015 sal 20,0 S&P 500 &inn mks w 2015 sun 2000 • &oval 'Tom ret wars ', arrases 133% for • et0E41/emill0Enei CoDrom 182 6131ratale wlaa ae 2016 erd 2160 S&'500 ramie Ma 417015rd 2100- isperm %PECKS EPSA3PS rown 60 mad S&P VA lor msro clines:2015 tw: 2000 mpledreeSissi PE n we 2015 on 20M S119 EPS 168 marl/ninon Meld m 201SE DPS 01410 2 05% *Fir/no-ma 4 vand ved 205% nideem >3 • noma an ROE / ti i Cia3 267 nandbr vein; PE art2015 end rn201tE$119EPS I ", 7 47POPPRI9 Meld on 201!E OFT 01410 10.1% a Ted .Kretaldu mein %soar PE 790% Coremee os fa suady.r.rsi PE • I ass' CoE M2 EPS en Ccemna Sad EPS nimbi 2000 DPS6frount nwdol using no DPS W mane 20001 Sion sin 7o•Tra "mumafat vises: 0% Berm& 2016E ecernrac waft per shwa PM 76 SensTnaymara of S&Pfareee e2015s.wdtonarnhd EPS •-d WO* S&P 500 (PS discount models steps to value. Normal 2015E S&P 500 EPS $118 $120 91229 2125 $130 2136 1) Estimate noernaliaed S&P 500 EPS 6.00% 2227 2270 2313 2377 2484 2591 2) Adjust norma lizedEPS for po forma accounting quality Re.I 5.25% 2124 2106 2206 2267 2370 2472 3) Estimate a fair lontierm reel return on S&P 500 owner5hTp (COE) tostol 6.60% 2031 2070 21091 2168 2266 2383 4) Capitalize nermalized and accounting quality adj. E PS at real CoE 5) Consider lontterm potential for value added growth opportunities equity 5.75% 1945 1983 2020 2077 2170 2264 6.00% 1867 1903 1939 1993 2083 2173 San Pun Bet CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119290 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265474 EFTA01459074