EFTA01840635.pdf

To: Sean J Lancaste From: Sean J Lancaster Sent: Thur 2/2/2012 2:15:08 PM Subject: This Month's Report: Business Jet Survey: Stable Overal I, North America Improving BizjetSurvey MN020212 pdf Title: FW: UBS Business Jet Survey: Stable Overall, North America Improving • Index at 41, unchanged from November: Our latest Business Jet Market Index came in at 41, in line with our prior survey from November as an uptick in small cabin offset slight declines in mid/large. Our straight up measure of absolute business conditions declined 2% to 4.0. Overall, it appears the market has held relatively stable despite continued economic uncertainty. * North America customer interest improving: While weak pricing and high levels of inventory remain a drag on the market, our survey continues to indicate that customer interest is improving and participants are optimistic looking out. Our overall customer interest score increased 3% to 55 this time with North America (59), Asia (58) and Latin America (52) reflecting incremental improvement, partially offset by declining interest in the Middle East (44) and Europe (31). Our participants indicated bonus depreciation did not meaningfully impact year end activity. * See positive risk-rewards for Bizjet stocks: While our survey of industry professionals and other key Bizjet market indicators have held stable, we believe North America Bizjet is improving off the bottom, driven by replacement demand postponed during the downturn. We see positive risk-rewards with the stocks that we think still incorporate little for business jets at current levels including Buy-rated COUGD/TXT. • Select charts: Chart 1: UBS Business Jet Market Index Chart 2: Overall Business Conditions Score 100 250 0 rr rr U$ 44W44rc .- 7" r 51$1 14 11-4/KIti i 41, r/ so Etainess Jet MerkelIds< — • Rd PeiMRS) EFTA_R1_00225634 EFTA01840635  1. 1 s I 11111114trtiiii • Simi* average BBSGEWT XI stock pnce Ferlonnance relative to S&P 500 Son US$ Buenas Jet Survey Source MS Business Jet Survey Best regards, Sean J. Lancaster Bristol Associates Inc. www.bristolassociates.com EFTA_R1_00225635 EFTA01840636  BRISTOL ASSOCIATES This message may contain confidential andor legally pnvileged information. If you are not the intended recipient of the message. please destroy it. Any unauthorized dissemination. distribution or copying of the materiel in this message, and any attachments to the message, is Wetly forbidden. (c) 2011 all rights reserved • Index at 41, unchanged from November: Our latest Business Jet Market Index came in at 41, in line with our prior survey from November as an uptick in small cabin offset slight declines in mid/large. Our straight up measure of absolute business conditions declined 2% to 4.0. Overall, it appears the market has held relatively stable despite continued economic uncertainty. * North America customer interest improving: While weak pricing and high levels of inventory remain a drag on the market, our survey continues to indicate that customer interest is improving and participants are optimistic looking out. Our overall customer interest score increased 3% to 55 this time with North America (59), Asia (58) and Latin America (52) reflecting incremental improvement, partially offset by declining interest in the Middle East (44) and Europe (31). Our participants indicated bonus depreciation did not meaningfully impact year end activity. " See positive risk-rewards for bizjet stocks: While our survey of industry professionals and other key bizjet market indicators have held stable, we believe North America bizjet is improving off the bottom, driven by replacement demand postponed during the downturn. We see positive risk-rewards with the stocks that we think still incorporate little for business jets at current levels including Buy-rated COUGD/TXT. • Select charts: Chart 1: UBS Business Jet Market Index Chart 2: Overall Business Conditions Score 100 29) 10 I rc fir: Iiii311;311;161 atis LIE6 Eusiress Jet Menet Int< — • Rd Psi (RHS) EFTA_R1_00225636 EFTA01840637  10 0 11;11112411;ii4 • Simp:e average BMW/Tr stock once performance troJex relate° lo S&P 500 Source. U8S Somas Je Sone/ Some U8S Business Jet Survey EFTA_R1_00225637 EFTA01840638