EFTA01073969.pdf

tagtaint 13 Things That Define the New American Center It is bigger than you think... ARE YOU IN THE NEW AMERICAN CENTER? TAKE OUR POLL AND FIND OUT » PLUS: AN EXPLAINER AND WHERE YOUR POLITICIANS STAND By The Editors Published in the Nov. 2013 issue An exclusive Esquire-NBC News survey shows us that everything we are told about politics in America today—that there is no middle ground between left and right, blue and red, us and them—is wrong. The data, compiled by the Benenson Strategy Group (pollster for Obama for America '08 and '12) and Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies (lead pollster for Romney for President), show us there is a large group of American voters—even a majority—who make up a New American Center that is passionate, persuadable, and very real. They are merely waiting for Washington to find them. 1. THE CENTER IS FILLED WITH PEOPLE WHO DO NOT CONSIDER THEMSELVES THE CENTER. 1IPage of 17 EFTA01073969 When we talk about the Center, we are not talking about some shapeless, shifting mass of voters who just can't make up their minds about where they stand. They know what they stand for—nearly half the voters we identified in the Center even say they're liberals or conservatives. (Hell, 15 percent of those in the Center say they are supporters of the Tea Party.) However, their views don't neatly correspond to traditional definitions of liberal or conservative, creating a disjunction between where they think they are on the ideological spectrum and where they actually are. WHEN IT COMES TO POLITICAL ISSUES. THE PEOPLE OF !MEUNIER CONSIDER THEMSELVES TO BE • 3600 INDEPENDENT FOR WHOM DID YOU VOTE IN 2O12? MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: Among those on the Right, there is a much higher tendency to self-identify as very conservative on social issues (65%) compared with those on the Left who identify as very liberal on social issues (54%). The same numbers more or less apply on fiscal issues, with the Right more likely to describe themselves in extreme terms. 2. THE CENTER IS PRETTY WHITE. NOT AS WHITE AS THE FOLKS ALL THE WAY TO THE RIGHT, BUT STILL: PRETTY WHITE. AND THEY DON'T WANT TO HEAR ANY TALK OF "DIVERSITY." Wage of 17 EFTA01073970 Compared with voters who make up segments further to the left on the spectrum, the Center is much less ethnically diverse. Though it's impossible to attribute any direct causation, there also happens to be a clear lack of support in the Center for issues typically related to diversity. HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE YOUR ETHNICITY? 2% I% WHITE/ IHAOR/ATRGAN` HISPANIC/ ASIAN OTHER CAUCASIAN AMERICAN t ATINO DO YOU SUPPORT REQUIRING ALL REGISTERED VOTERS TO SHOW A PHOTO ID, SUCH ASA VALID DRIVER'S LICENSE, AT THE POLLING BOOTH BEFORE THEY CAN CAST A VOTE? .58% UOERIT 17% SOMEWHAT 10% TEUTRAL ON 8% SOMEWHAT 7% STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPPORT THL MATTER OPPOSE OPPOSE Do you support ending affirmative action In hiring decisions and collage admissions? STRONGLY SUPPORT 30'. SON<WHAl SUPPORT 27% MARA/ ON THE MATTER 2511 ICIIICWMAT OPPOSE irs STRONOLYOMOSETI 4111 DO YOU SUPPORT PROVIDING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WITH A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVE BROKEN THE RULES? Wen* support 12% Somewhat support 20% Neutral on the matter 14% Somewhat oopoie18% Strongly oppose 38% MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: Wage of 17 EFTA01073971 The Right is about 90 percent white across the board, while on the Left you've got two camps side by side: the secular segment (very white) and the religious (very nonwhite), meaning it's not quite right to think of the Left as an ideological Benetton ad. There are stark racial divisions, and only when the group is unified does it become diverse. The support for affirmative action and immigration reform on the Left is soft—a bare majority supports both causes—while the opposition from the Right is very strong. 3. THE CENTER DOESN'T MUCH LIKE HOW THINGS ARE GOING. They're not sure how well the Constitution is aging. They don't much like the two-party system. And they don't care for politicians. What else you got, Washington? AGREE OR DIS- 54% 29% AGREE: AFTER 220 ISOM 11/ .11% YEARS. THE CONSTI- TUTION CAN'T PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR MANY OF THE MODERN PROBLEMS WE FACE NOW. AGREE OR DISAGREE: THE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM WE HAVE IN THIS COUNTRY IS BROKEN AND OUT OF DATE AND AMERI- CA WOULD BE BETTER OFF IF THERE WERE MORE THAN JUST TWO PARTIES. Raise 49% 9•SItc • • 30% Neat I 21'. iimemor thieve! I neveoassmy IllthInpolmkians &either pans become they alwaysenduR disappointing me. DsEEtts 26% NeuunI25% THINKING ABOUT THE NEXT FEW YEARS, HOW OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC ARE YOU ABOUT... THE ANERICARECONOMY? THE POLITICS IN THIS COUNTRY? Noe E 21% 21% t NEUTRAL OPTIMISTIC 0 z V C a. 58% Wage of 1 1 EFTA01073972 4. THE CENTER TRUSTS DEMOCRATS (AND OPRAH) MORE THAN REPUBLICANS. Eighteen percent of those in the Center name a Democratic figure as the person they trust most, including 9 percent who pick the president. By comparison, 13 percent name a Republican leader, and there are no active GOP politicians who receive more than 1 percent, save one: Chris Christie. This could reflect the absence of a unifying national leader in the Republican Party. Or, you know, could be something else. OPRAH WINFREY BUSINESS LEADERS 6 18% Including: ACTORS ACTRESSES RELIGIOUS FIGURES Barad( Obama 9% 5% Hillary Clinton 4% Including: Bill Clinton 3% The pope 3% Other Democratic Billy Graham 1% political figures 2% CONSERVATIVE PUNDITS NEV.'S PL RSONA0 Ill IS REPUBLICAN 3% 6% POLITICAL Including: Including: FIGURES Bill O'Reilly 1% Anderson Cooper 1% 13% Brian Williams1% including: George W. Bush 2% LIBERAL PUNDITS MILITARY LEADERS Chris Christie 2% 3% 4% Mitt Romney Including: Including: Sarah PaIM 1% Jon Stewart 1% Colin Powell Rand Paull% Stephen Colbert 1% Ron Paul 1% NO ONE Other GOP 5% WIN DE GE NI RI 13% 2% 5IPage of 17 EFTA01073973 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: On the Left, it's Obama by a mile—not even the Clintons come close. But among the Right, Billy Graham (at 7 percent) outpolls everyone on the list, with the next three highest tied at 4 percent: the pope, Bill O'Reilly, and George W. Bush. (Among active politicians, the Right likes Rand Paul best.) 5. PLEASE DON'T TALK TO THE CENTER ABOUT GOD AND GUNS. Religion is not a major part of the Center's life, and it firmly believes that religion has no place in the public sphere. Meanwhile: Even though about a third of those in the Center own guns, an overwhelming plurality have no problem with background checks. Wage of 17 EFTA01073974  DO YOU OWN A GUN OR DOES SOMEONE IN YOUR HOUSEHOLD OWN A GUN? WHICH STATEMENT BEST DESCRIBES YOUR VIEW ON THE ISSUE OF GUN CONTROL? 4% All guns are 15% We haveteen 45% 22% Background Current gun 14% The Second dangerous the ramino'. chocks are laws must Amendment and should be bons of lax not a viola. be better en- and the right banned, gun laws and don of Second forced to MY to bear arms should take Amendment sure future are absolute. significant rights but rathi tragedies do and all Arner- steps to re- er are needed not occur. but 'cans should duce and re- to make sure no new laws be able 10 buy strict the ue• Our schools should be add' any gun they of guns in and commune- ad to restrict want. AMOtiC41. ties stay safe. the Second Amendment 110 11. Agree«diagram: RatgienIs important to ma and I regularlymaketimeto attend urrylcsa and pray. Ay•ce 29% I/ cifirrn55'. Neutral« AGREE OR DISAGREE: CHURCHES AND RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD HAVE NO ROLE IN POLITICS. Agree 59% Disagree 1 2B% Neutral / If% 7IPage of 17 EFTA01073975 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: The Center is less religious than the Right, and—surprise!—it's less religious than the Left, too, and here's why: Members of the Gospel Left (the ones who broke 99 to 1 for Obama in 2012) are second only to the Righteous Right for how important religion is to them. Unlike their fellow believers on the Right, though, more than half of the Gospel Left feels that religion should not play a role in public life. 6. THE CENTER BELIEVES THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD HELP ONLY THOSE WHO REALLY NEED HELP. The Center strongly favors government intervention that ensures everyone has their basic needs met (such as food and health care) and has a fair shot at earning a decent living. Agree or disagree: Government should guar- antee that people get equal pay for equal work, regardless of their gender or race. Agree 73 Disagree 15% Neutral 12% 4 4 01/o WOULD YOU SUPPORT Strongly support INCREASING THE AGREE OR DISAGREE: WE NEED FEDERAL MINIMUM THE GOVERNMENT TO MAINTAIN PROGRAMS LIKE FOOD WAGE FROM $7.25 TO STAMPS, WELFARE. AND $10 PER HOUR? MEDICAID SO THAT PEOPLE WHO 23% 12% HIT HARD TIMES DON'T FALL THROUGH THE CRACKS. Somewhat support Somewhat oppose 2O% Neutral 13% rui Neutral on 8% the matter Strongly oppose 8IPage of 17 EFTA01073976 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: On the Left, there is intense and broad support for these issues, but there are huge divisions on the Right. The religious segment overwhelmingly supports all of these issues, while the Talk Radio Heads oppose all but equal pay, and between the two, the Right nets out to soft opposition to raising the minimum wage (with 49 percent against, 39 percent for) and safety-net programs (43 percent against, 40 percent for). 7. ...BUT THE CENTER WOULD REALLY PREFER THAT THE GOVERNMENT LEAVE THE REST OF US ALONE. Especially when it comes to our personal lives, though that live-and-let-live mind-set has limits. Though a clear majority of the Center is strongly in favor of marriage equality, half also registers concerns about changing the definition of marriage. There is also support for abortion—but mostly during the first three months. 9IPage of 17 EFTA01073977  0 ABORTION? 0 LEGALIZE Should be prohibited in ail circumstances. 3% Should be legal only to save the life of MARIJUANA? STRONGLY SUPPORT 34% the mother. 4% Should be legal only in cases of race Or incest. or to save the life of the SOMEWHAT SUPPORT US% mother. 29% Should be legal lox any reason. but not after the first three months of NEUTRAL ON THE MATTER 15% pregnancy. 36'. Should be legal for any reason, but SOMEWHAT OPPOSE 13% not after the first six months of pregnancy.15% Should be allowed at any time during STRONGLY OPPOSE 20% the woman's pregnancy for any reason.12% AGREE OR DISAGREE: GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT LEGISLATE HOW AMERICANS CAN BEHAVE IN THEIR PERSONAL LIVES, SUCH AS OWNING GUNS, ABORTION, MARRIAGE, AND MARIJUANA. WHICH STATEMENT BEST DESCRIBES YOUR VIEW ON THE ISSUE OF GAY MARRIAGE? Marnage is between to,: ; .t -Ito prohibit it. then that love each other and are c.,•• • • :'• . who; right. to each other. regardless of whether 9% they are men or women. 44% Marriage is between a man and a woman. but there is no reason same. sex partners cannot have civil Gay marriage is a civil.rights issue. unions that give them the same legal Preventing gay people from getting rights as married couples. married is discrimination. 23% 11% Marriage has always been between a Marriage is an issue for each state to man ands woman, and that &lineup-I decide, and if some states want to rec should not be changed. ognizegay marriage or other states 13% AGREE OR DISAGREE: MARRIAGE AND FAMILY ARE IMPORTANT INSTITUTIONS THAT SHAPE OUR CULTURE ARDOUR COUNTRY AND WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL BEFORE WE CHANGE THE DEFINITION. 50% ACPLE 28% DISAGREE 22% POUTRAL EFTA01073978 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: There are moderating forces within both camps: The relatively conservative social views of the Gospel Left balance out the Bleeding Hearts' strong progressive views, while the Talk Radio Heads, most of whom don't want the government involved in our personal lives, balance out the intense pro-life, anti-gay-marriage positions of the Righteous Right. 8. THE CENTER HAS HAD IT WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD. ... And doesn't much want to use American resources to fix things overseas when we have problems at home. However: ix-nay on bringing up ina-Chay. AGREE OR DISAGREE: AMERICA'S SECURITY WILL BE AT RISK IF WE'RE NOT ABLE TO MAINTAIN A MILITARY Yes AND ECONOMIC EDGE OVER CHINA. 62% • Maybe No 22% 16% 16% AGREE AGREE OR DISAGREE: AMERICA SHOULD NO LONGER BE THE WORLD'S POLICEMAN, EVEN IF IT MEANS OTHER NATIONS 15% NEUTRAL PLAYING A LARGER ROLE. 9°/0 DISAGREE Agree or disagree: We can'tafford to spend money on foreign aid and building up other nations when we need to build our own country. f 'mai 12% • 7% 111 P a EFTA01073979 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: This is the one thing that the Left, the Right, and the Center agree on, with one exception: The Center is even less likely than either the Left or the Right to believe that America has a responsibility to maintain peace in the world. 9. THE CENTER WANTS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO SPEND LESS, GO EASY ON REGULATION. WHICH STATEMENT BEST DESCRIBES YOUR VIEW ON THEISSUE OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING? 40% GOVERNMENT 39% GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS SPENDING WASTEFUL AND SHOULD NEVER INEFFICIENT. EXCEED WHAT IT TAKES IN. 17% GOVERNMENT SPENDING. • 5(70 GOVERNMENT SPENDING WHILE SOMETIMES INEF- REPRESENTS OUR MORAL FICIENT. IS THE BEST WAY OBLIGATION TO CARE FOR TO ENSURE INVESTMENT ONE ANOTHER. IN THE COMMON GOOD. SHOULD AMERICANS AMEND THE CONSTITUTION TO REQUIRE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO BALANCE ITS BUDGET EACH YEAR? Strongly support 50°. Somewhat support 27% Neutral on the matter 11% Somewhat oppose 7% Strongly oppose 4% Which statement best describes your view on the issue of Wall Street reform? Financial markets left unregulated will wreck the American economy. 35% Financial reform should be used only to curb abuses, and shouldn't restrict banks and investors' ability to make profits. 42% Financial reform undermines free-market capitalism and prevents growth and prosperity.12% Financial reform is another indicator of government overreach into activity it has no right to regulate. 11% 12IPage of 17 EFTA01073980 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: There is significant tension on the Left regarding a balanced-budget amendment, with the secular Left split on an amendment while the religious strongly support it. Similarly, there is tension on the Right when it comes to financial regulation, with the religious Right taking a slightly dimmer view of financial markets than the secular. 10. THE CENTER IS PRETTY OKAY WITH RAISING TAXES ON THE RICH AND ON POLLUTERS. The Center wants a tax system and an economy that ensures the wealthy pay their fair share and polluters pay for their mess, and they want the revenue that generates to be spent fairly and wisely—not just handed out to people who aren't accountable or funneled to wasteful projects. DO YOU SUPPORT RAISING TAXES ON AMERICANS WHO MAKE MORE THAN $1MILLION A YEAR? Strongly support 59% Somewhat support 19% Neutral on the matter 7% Somewhat oppose 7% Strongly oppose 8% SHOULD THAT PRODUCE CARBON EMISSIONS TO HELP REDUCE POLLUTION? 4% STRONGLY OPPOSE 10/ 0 STRONGLY SOMEWHAT SUPPORT OPPOSE 13% NEUTRAL ON THE MATTER 31% SOMEWHAT SUPPORT 13IPage of 17 EFTA01073981 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: Contrary to what you might have heard, the Right as a whole supports raising taxes on millionaires and taxing polluters, but just barely, and owing to the split between the Righteous Right (who overwhelmingly support the measures) and the Talk Radio Heads (who oppose). The Left is very intense in its support of both. 11. DRILL, KILL, AND STOP COMPLAINING: THE CENTER IS NOT SOFT. Should the government expand exploration of U.S.-based oil and gas reserves to lessen dependence on foreign oil? Strongly support 54 Somewhat support 26% Neutral on the matter 10% Somewhat oppose 7% Strongly oppose 3% 22% PEOPLE AREN'T COMPASSION- ATE TOWARD 0 ONE ANOTHER 78% PEOPLE AREN'T ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR DECISIONS AND ACTIONS END THE DEATH PENALTY? 46% STRONGLY OPPOSE 10% STRONGLY 11% SOMEWHAT 15% NEUTRAL ON 18% SOMEWHAT SUPPORT SUPPORT THE MATTER OPPOSE 14 Page of 17 EFTA01073982 12. THE CENTER NEEDS A DRINK PROBABLY A BEER. AND THEY RECYCLE! Whichof the following alcoholic drinksate youmoot Nicely todrink when you go out/ Wine 21% Beer 31% Clear spirits such as vodka or gin 15% Dark spirits such as bourbon or whiskey 7% I do not think alcohol. 26% Whichof Outlaws/Mg sports do you most enjoy watching onnattyislote Major league baseball 28% Pio football 46% College football 19% Pro basketball 10% College basketball 8% Hockey 9% Nascar 9% Golf 8% Tennis 3% MLS soccer 1% International soccer 3% do not watch sports on television. 21% HEY, CENTER: WHAT'D YOU DO LAST WEEKEND? Watched TV shows or Dined at a restaurant. Went shopping for fun. movies live on TV. St% 54% 34% Used social media such Read blogs or Web sites. Had sex. 34% as Facebook, Twitter, or 54% Instagram. 67% Played video games. Read a book. 47% 31% Read a magazine or newspaper. 65% Shopped at Walmart or Traveled out of town. Costco. 44% 25% Watched TV or a movie using TiVo, DVR, Netflix, Played sports, exercised. Went to church. 17% et al. 56% 35% a Had a fight with a Played a game online or spouse or family mem- on a phone or tablet. 55% ber. 12% ir M WHICH OFTHEFOLLOWINGBEST DESCRIBES THE RECYCLINGYOUDOATHOME? • I RECYCLE AT HOME BECAUSE IT IS REQUIRED. 6% • I RECYCLE AT HOME OUT OF HABIT. 11% I RECYCLE AT HOME BECAUSE I DON'T LIKE TO WASTE. 22% I RECYCLE AT HOME BECAUSE I FEEL LIKE I AM DOING SOMETHING GOOD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT. 47% I DO NOT RECYCLE AT HOME.15% 1SIPage of 17 EFTA01073983 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: If you are on the Left, you are less likely to have had sex, or read a book, than if you are on the Right. 13. THE CENTER IS UP FOR GRABS. Nearly two thirds of the Center agree that when it comes to politics, they often agree with some ideas that Democrats have and some ideas that Republicans have. There is not a strong consensus as to whether the Republicans or Democrats "get it wrong most of the time" or that their ideas rarely represent the Center's view, with 44 percent agreeing (just 24 percent strongly agree) and 29 percent disagreeing. What's more, more than one in three in the Center don't feel like there is anybody in Washington expressing for them. They are waiting to be found. AGREE OR DISAGREE: WHEN IT COMES TO POLITICS, I OFTEN AGREE WITH SOME IDEAS THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE AND SOME IDEAS THAT REPUBLICANS HAVE. 58% AGREE 24% • DISAGREE 18% NEUTRAL AGREE OR DISAGREE: WHEN IT COMES TO POLITICS. BOTH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS GET IT WRONG MOST OF THE TIME, AND I RARELY AGREE WITH THE IDEAS EITHER PARTY HAS. 44% AGREE 16IPage of 17 EFTA01073984 MEANWHILE, ON THE LEFT AND RIGHT: Those on the Left are the most confident that someone in Washington is expressing their viewpoints, while among the Right (the Righteous Right in particular), more than half feel no one is speaking up for them. The Right, too, seems up for grabs. 14. Are You In the New American Center? METHODOLOGY The Benenson Strategy Group and Public Opinion Strategies conducted a nationwide survey from August 5 through 11, 2013, with 2,410 registered voters. They applied a k-means clustering technique to group respondents into "segments" based on attitudinal and demographic commonalities and like-mindedness. They conducted eight iterations of the clustering to optimize the differentiating variables that feed into the segmentation methodology. The segments were formed based on commonalities across their demographics; psychographics; political, social, and economic values; and lifestyles. The pollsters selected the segmentation solution that yielded the most unique and differentiated clusters. EDITOR'S NOTE: Based on respondents' answers to our survey, the statisticians and analysts identified eight distinct ideological segments within the U. S. population, each with its own defining values, beliefs, and lifestyles. Among those eight segments, there arefour that occupy what the survey has determined is the center of the ideological spectrum. Unless otherwise indicated, each of the answers to the survey questions reflects the general consensus position of the center. For clarity, some questions have been adjusted and some answers aggregatedfrom the original survey. 17IPage of 17 EFTA01073985