EFTA01449333.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax U.S. Trade Balance Monitor [Figure 1: The US trade deficit continues to recover Figure 27 US and world industrial growth remains sedate 0 15 15 -100 O, ti USO Bn .100 10 -200 -200 -300 -300 6 -4C0 -400 0 -500 Id IP OK US IP -BOO -600 luoY) -5 -700 -700 .10 - US P (Yet') -10 -B047 —Annualized Trude Balance -15 -15 -900 J Annualized Trade Balance 3m 4 -500 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Sum —Annualized Trade Balance.12m Sum Saws teratreeetterswesarnt Source AsesSinerrn bind* Beak ( Figure 3: The narrowing in the deficit reflected a outpacing of import growth by export growth Figure Recently export prices have receded sharply while export volumes have increased slightly 25 30 15 • 20 20 15 YOY.% s‘v. . r 4 r —r • 10 , —4. 5 10 5 i lkihr, 4 91.6 -5 0 If 41 • -10 i 43 -11S b • -20 -10 • . EligiortValurs Growth ci 45 • -30 -15 1 ,4170. to Import ValreGrweth -20 45 -40 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-I2 Jan-92 Jan -se Jan-00 Jan-04 Jart-OB Jan-12 San:DeteStream. &Wad»Sant Scars DasSavam. Amber*Ira Figure 5: Export prices tend to follow the dollar Figure 6: Export volume growth closely follows external demand 12 )(Pen Pico 430 volume ln 20 U51.1;420.. nwneo 15 yoy.% work, Ip n. to in,' I.,' Owl 4 40 10 50 5 an 0 0 -6 -10 -e .16 -12 40 Jan-94 Doc-06 Nov-09 Oot.02 Sop.05 Ata5043 Juld Jan-84 Jen-913 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jon-10 dap:DiltaStraam Candi••Dant I Seesaw Ibtagrawn dash* Sant Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 39 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104695 CONFIDENTIAL SONY GM_00250879 EFTA01449333