EFTA01449334.pdf

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax Figure 7: Export volumes have remained below trend Figure 8: Export volume deviations from trend is no since 2001 longer correlated with moving average of dollar valuation aann•A`VADnAlen4 USIA Oman* -070 Mantrvene0 020 AnOtaancenonas miragen thiP4i Ln 020 • 10 0 A 4.0 • 10 0 10 oa 4.7 000 000 oa -006 4.6 ore 4110 • lb o 111 4!. 070 -0 n. Sager Dalarea, PUNS* Bog Saw DIOAMA Lant.4 Ba•A [Figure 9: A brief end to the dollar upsurge doesn't seem (Figure 10: Recovery in import price is boosting the to bolster export volume growth volume during the past few months —Exoonvoiarno 20 22 20 4 30 ilf:TRIIIMA.kny•Ited6W Lo 15 17 440 10 12 10 4 SO 0 0 4 60 -5 -10 -10 4 70 warren Vonana 15 • la InpOn Proalrnol -20 4 80 a8 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan.02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan.92 Jana) Jana) Jan C4 Jan-03 Jan-12 Source. DeteStrewn, Deutsch* Sant Sear &bays% Detach,Bank Figure 1 : Import price inflation has followed the dollar Figure 12: Import volume growth has generally been highly correlated with US domestic demand growth 26 —Import Pnce -12 20 20 WY.% USTABA0kineftearhal 15 15 -7 10 it \ .1 i. -2 6 0 -5 0 It) NikI A\ - i 3 -10 -5 8 -15 40 -import Volume -20 45 13 -25 US 810hs) -20 Jan-94 Jon-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-O2 Jan-06 Jan-10 Sown. Conearen Dance* 8ent Savor OestSrewn tacitly Set Page 40 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 104696 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250880 EFTA01449334