EFTA01387379.pdf

9 January 2018 FX Blueprint I Figure 13: Chinese FX policy moved through three distinct regimes last year; what's to come? 700 2017 CMY FX Regimes -Wherenext7 Figure 14: Back-end bond yield spreads are still supportive of RhtB :50 58 200 660 Regent 3 62 159 Loosen macroprudemul 0.60 Regime I 64 measures reerroducing 00 Annum camel USD demand -5 66 centres -> 670 compress reared gel tno way USO/CSIY moms 57 68 Regime 2 0 010 Opportunistic fixing -50 7.2 tee methodology - NO down •100 Cluna US WY 8ond Yield 904041. bp3 74 1/50/CSIY d.a0 7.6 •150 U' DCW RH' •eive old Idl1v 6100.17 l4u617 60:o itt 7.8 -200 07 08 03 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 7 Savor Dendiellantee alormlargMina LP Soirc• Dandy a *AG Socentiorpityno• LP Figure 15: USLXCNY correlations to the broad dol€ar have been rising since CFETS basket introduction 1W ly rolling correlation between USOtCNY and MD TV] I Figure 16: =outflows have been reined in. but travel and E&0 outflows have remained stubborn 100 MD en 40 sin. 0(,0 00 040 020 04) 420 -340 13 19 -300 10 11 13 13 14 15 15 9 Sams Onsets awe A4 Mare n Feta CP Sant Onsthe ant Mt Non Amyl:» Figure 17: Foreign debt inflows surged in OS 2017 after Figure 18: Chinese Kills remain steady and the leading the launch or Bond Connect relationship to FX suggests further support for RMI5 70 USD bn 930 63 Foreign Debt Inflows (per quarter) ne Cdfreal PAC 60 52 5 "'SDr411. ett3 teserwl ly lag 50 S2 0 50 Si 62 40 510 30 6.4 50 IIIIII IIII1I 20 66 500 10 I I 476 60 eg e a ll.li.iliIIII 49.0 -10 70 £05 -20 430 72 -30 2613 2O.1.1 2615 201E .'017 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 la 15 16 17 Sarni Deutsche Pant AO, Hos Anitsea I Sane Cando Bs* A0 Bloonitep Para.LP Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089883 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00236067 EFTA01387379