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24 September 2017
Autos & Auto Parts
General Motors Co
notable exceptions such as New York City-being the city that never sleeps). This
implies that these vehicles would generate 56,000 revenue miles per year out of
70,000 annual miles driven (analysis is based on an average of 11.5 MPH traveled
for a typical NYC taxi; typical taxi drives 70,000 miles per year over 2 driver shifts
and generates 34,230 revenue miles).
IFigure 3: Miles Driven and Utilization of On-Demand Autonomous Vehicles
nationwide
driverless vehicle price $ 50,000
miles driven
average driverless miles driven per hour 11.5
miles traveled annually 70,000
utilization on trip 80%
revenue miles 56,000
Swat Mt TLC Indulevaper* DS *SS
To estimate the actual cost of operation, we adjust the depreciation of the
vehicle to reflect a 3-year life expectancy. This implies that these vehicles will
last 210,000 miles (compared with a 202,000-223,000 lifetime vehicle miles
traveled for passenger cars and light trucks). Even after adjusting the price of
an Autonomous vehicle upwards by $20,000 (We used a $50,000 total vehicle
price; companies such as Delphi believe that the cost premium to produce a
fully autonomous vehicle will ultimately decline to $5,000-$5,500), the improved
amortization of fixed costs implies that the total cost per mile will decline to -
$0.53/mile ($0.48 per mile variable cost plus $0.051 mile for fixed costs, which is
—$3,800 in fixed cost per year spread over 70,000 miles).
Keep in mind our fuel cost assumption of $0.1 Umile assumes only ICE vehicles
are used in a hypothetical autonomous fleet. In reality, we would expect strong
adoption of EVs, where fuel/recharging costs are far less (-$0.03-$0.04/mile).
Indeed, roughly 2/3 of the incremental growth in GM's Maven carsharing fleet
is expected to be Bolt EVs, with GM's Autonomous vehicle platform also based
on the Bolt.
Page 10 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0086217
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00232401
EFTA01385144
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